This is a rather long post covering several ideas of the future direction of the Honor Harrington series. It has been revised since the original posting with some minor editing, an expansion of part (5) of the Technology Breakthoughs section, and the addition of some new ideas.

Version 1.0 of this post was originally posted July 24, 1996.

Version 1.1 Changes include minor edits, a correction to the paragraph on Grayson ship names, a speculation of posthumous promotions, a survey of possible husbands for Honor, 3 more paragraphs to part (5) of Technology Breakthoughs section, new part (7) of the Technology Breakthoughs section. Note that entire Trevor's star scenario has been invalidated by In Enemy Hands. Update posted on June 12, 1997.

Version 1.2 Changes include a few additional comments (sparked by a review about 3 years after previous update). Update made May 28, 2000. Additional commentary can be found here.

Grayson Ship Names

Weber stated in an interview (summarized at URL http://lyre.mit.edu/~deering/dwspoil.html) in 1996 that the next book (presumably Honor Among Enemies) would have Honor missing and thought dead for a while. In that period, Grayson was going to name a ship after her and wouldn't rename it when she shows up alive. Well, I have read HOE and IMHO she was not out of circulation long enough (however, if RMMS Artemis had taken over a month to repair its hyper generator...). Since Weber has said so, I am going to assume that Grayson will name a ship after her anyway, one of their new SDs perhaps? I wonder what the naming convention for the Grayson SDs is? I like the idea of using the names of Steadholders (or equivalent) who passed their Tests (aced them actually). I must admit that so far in the series, all GSN ships named after people were cruisers. May 1997 addendum: It appears that the "next" book for him was the one he was working on, In Enemy Hands (presumably HOE had already been turned over to Baen).

Precedence of Grayson Ranks

I have wondered what the relative rank of Grayson Admirals (including Rear and Vice) are with respect to Manticore Admirals. I am assuming (until further notice) that High Admiral Matthews ranks with the Admirals of the Green, and all other Grayson Admirals rank with the Manticore Red division. This means that Honor (as Admiral the Steadholder Harrington) could be in charge of a joint Manticore-Grayson taskforce as long as the senior Manticore officer was a Vice Admiral or a very new Admiral of the Red (note that the GSN contingent should not be a nominal force).

Posthumous Promotions

The epilogue of On Basilisk Station reveals that a number of the surviving officers of the CL "Fearless" had received promotion. Several others show up in Honor of the Queen with a higher rank then they had two years before. Given the relatively slow rate of promotion in a prolong navy, this implies that they had received promotions due to the Basilisk action as well. I believe that fairness would indicate that the officers who were KIA would also receive promotions effective on that date (I won't guess on what the effect that would have on pensions for heirs). In Flag in Exile, Mercedes Brigham mentioned that BuPers had intended her promotion to Commander to be her separation rank (however, she refused retirement). This implies to me that the concept of a posthumous promotion is at least possible. Weber has told us that Grayson will name a ship after Honor when they believe that she is dead. Will Manticore also give her a posthumous promotion? If so, what happens when she turns up alive?

Honor in Love

The ground rules (as I understand them) is that he had appeared in the series by Flag in Exile and causes controversy on both Manticore and Grayson. Graydon Saunders, noted rasfw posthack, has posted that he believed that any husband for Honor would cause controversy on Grayson due to his unique status (husband of a FEMALE steadholder). I don't know if I entirely agree with this, but I will assume it and only discuss controversy on Manticore.

• Havenites

  The only possibilities appear to be Thomas Theisman ("is the man") and Warner Caslet. Controversy is guaranteed. The opportunity for a marriage is a problem that the "Solarian Peace Initiative" (see below) solves (the only other use for it is to fill up the period between 2 Honor titles).

• Graysons

  A number of names come to mind; either they are much younger than Honor, or they are already married. Several of them are subordinates to Admiral Harrington, GSN. I can see how they could be controversal on Manticore. I have discarded Alfredo Yu as a candidate; unless he has picked up a wife somewhere, I don't see Manticore public opinion having a specific problem with him (well, he could be a subordinate, see fraternization discussion below).

• Manticoreans

  Alistair McKeon was my original candidate. However, unless he has a wife hidden away or is Honor's subordinate at that time (entirely possible), he isn't going to be controversal. The last chapter of Honor Among Enemies has a certain notorious merchant prince eating enough humble pie to suggest that he might be a candidate. Controversy might not be the right word to describe the reaction of the Opposition to this development, however it will certainly be extended and probably loud. Hamish Alexander, 13th Earl White Haven has been suggested as the man by several posters, including Graydon Saunders. White Haven is one of the very few to have shown up in all 7 Honor titles(May 2000 addendum, and he has shown up in two more titles as well). I see the Hamish-Honor alliance, not as controversy, but more as careers-ending scandal (note the plural). First of all, White Haven is already married. Unless Weber kills off Emily Alexander at least one book before hand, that means either a divorce or Emily's suicide when faced with Hamish's adultery. I see furious speeches, riots on streets (and that's just on Manticore), and the strong possibility of the Cromarty government falling; the commotion would exceed that in Field of Dishonor. Second, they are both on active duty and because of White Haven's immense senority, I would expect that the rules against fraternization will come into play. If White Haven faces a Court Martial, the court will no choice but to find him guilty, which means his career is gone (and I don't mean beached on half-pay either). Honor is almost certainly going to dragged into the same court and her career is gone too. Well, her GSN career might still be alive; but I would think that the adventures of Admiral Harrington GSN will not sell as well as the adventures of Honor Harrington, RMN. If Weber goes this route and fails to satisfy my forebodings, I am going to be quite cranky after digging myself out of the rubble of unsuspended disbelief.

Technology Breakthroughs and Tactical Implications

1. The new style LACs

   Honor Among Enemies has more on those LACs that were first mentioned in The Short Victorious War. Weber has not given a clear indication on how they are armed. In T.S.V.W., it was mentioned that 4 of these LACs cost as much as of a destroyer (which was probably 7 to 8 times more massive). Honor Among Enemies states that their energy armament had been enhanced (at the cost of reducing the missile armament). The LACs with the most complete description were the (9K tons) Masadan ones that engaged the RMN Fearless (+consorts) in The Honor of the Queen. They had broadsides of 13 missiles and 1 laser. Assuming the Masadan missile technology was no better than Grayson's (a safe assumption I believe), those missiles would have been about as massive as the much more powerful ones that Manticore uses for the new style missile pods and probably the LACs as well (at least that is my assumption). I first thought that the new Manticore LACs could have broadsides of much as 10 missiles with several lasers (for comparison Manticore destroyers appear to have about 5 missile tubes in their broadsides); but the fact that Honor didn't think that 6 of them were enough to help against a battlecruiser implies less than this. I have decided that they have 5 missiles in their broadsides (even so, I would have thought that 2 salvos of 30 missiles could have at least badly damaged a battle cruiser, IF the closing velocity was high enough to reduce the number of missiles that the point defense would destroy). These LACs do have improved sidewall generators, bigger impellers, and possibly anti-missile defenses (which the Masadan LACs did not). They are probably more massive than Masadan LACs, perhaps as much as 12K tons. With the more potent drive, these LACs can hunt down anything. Enough of them could blow away a SD (whether any of them would survive is a different matter). What is unknown is what their anti-missile defense is like. Do they have a point defense system (even a small one)? There is a comment on last page of chapter 7 (p106) that suggests that they do. Do they carry countermissiles (these are much smaller than the ship-to-ship missiles, so it is possible). Do they carry any decoys? May 2000 note: The Shrike class of LACs introduced in Echoes of Honor do carry countermissiles and decoys.

   It is possible that Weber is going to introduce a "carrier" revolution to the Manticore-Haven war (but I don't expect it before Honor #8 or #9). If the Warfarer could carry 12 LACs (plus the missile pod deployer system), a larger SD-sized hull might be able to carry 20. A squadron of carriers could deploy 160 LACs. If this flotilla of LACs have 2 broadsides of 800 missiles each at a high closing velocity, I believe that they should be able to cripple, if not destroy, an SD squadron. On the other hand, that squadron of SDs (plus escorts) could attack each LAC with about 2 missiles per salvo (I suspect that they could get at least 3 salvos off). This means that some attention has to be made for the LACs avoiding damage or none are coming back. What could work is a "Wall of Protection" - the LACs fire off one broadside, do a 180 degree spin, fire off the second, and then do a 90 degree spin. All of them would end up on a plane with their wedges facing their target. Perhaps before the final spin, they could fire off some counter missiles and even a decoy drone or two. If they have a point defense, the 90 deg spin could be delayed long enough for the point defense system to kill a few missiles. The coordination of 160 point defense systems is an obvious "Engineering Problem." Another alternative is that the standard attack would be "crossing the T" of the SD squadron. If the SD squadron tries to maneuver against it, it could easily get out of position against opposing SD squadrons. Also, a squadron of LAC carriers could be used to hunt battleship squadrons (May 2000 note: It appears that I seriously underestimated the number of LACs an SD size hull could carry).

2. Missile Pod Deployment System

   Poster 'saundrsg@qlink.queensu.ca (Graydon)' has speculated that Manticore could build a class of cruisers (bigger than battlecruisers) using this system and use them as battleship hunters. I believe that they will not be survivable enough. In Flag in Exile, 24 battleships destroyed 6 battlecruisers with one salvo. This was a high speed encounter (relative speed was .13 c) which made missiles more effective by making point defense less effective. Even if these new cruisers (I want to call them assault cruisers) are twice as hard to kill as ordinary battlecruisers, that still results in a battleship squadron destroying an "assault" cruiser per salvo on high speed encounters. They will get off several salvos before being destroyed. A lower speed encounter where the missiles spend more time in range of the point defense would be more survivable for the assault cruisers, but would require the use of many more missile pods. This would result in more salvos being fired by the battleships and perhaps resulting in the same final losses. Hemphill and her crowd might not mind trading material at the rate of 5 or 6 of Haven to 1 of Manticore, but I suspect that BuPers would mind trading off that many Manticore citizens. BuShips would mind having to spend months repairing ships after each mission (this is starting to be expensive). I think this system would work better based on a much more survivable SD hull (the "mauler" type SD). If it is going to used to pound something, lets pound something BIG. I see a squadron of these doing a high-speed run through Trevor's star, passing just close enough to the wormhole exit to barrage the fortresses with one salvo, say 10000 missiles?

Haven Missile Pods

There have been several battles (e.g., Nightingale in the prologue of Flag in Exile) where Haven has held the system and should have found intact missile pods. They should be able (especially with renegade help from the Solarian League) to reverse engineer these and make their own pods. Even if they are heavier than Manticore's pods and fire fewer than 10 missiles, this would make future battles interesting, perhaps TOO interesting from a Manticore point of view. Battleships should be big enough to tow several without problems as well (more problems for the "assault" cruisers).

4. Improved Inertia Compensator

   Honor Among Enemies refers to a 25% improvement in compensator efficiencies ("across the board"). This means that newly designed SDs would have a peak acceleration of over 520 g (a safe acceleration of over 416g). Who needs special ships to go battleship hunting; these SDs could do it themselves, at least until Haven figures out how Manticore does it and rebuilds ALL their battleships.

5. Variable Accelerations for Missiles

   By this, I mean variable in flight. I have the impression that the missiles are under constant acceleration until they go ballistic. If they could be fired at a relatively low power rating, and then go to full acceleration for the last 20-30 seconds of flight (this could mess up the tracking for the point defense), the missile engagement envelope would be greatly expanded. If this would actually work against point defenses, the navy that introduces this change would have a significant advantage until its opponent matches it.

   If Manticore introduces this, it would be a great benefit to the new style LACs. They could launch their missiles, and then use maximum acceleration to stay out of the missile envelope of their target. This would work even after Haven modifies its missiles to do it too, since the engagement envelope of a variable-accel missile is inversely proportional to the acceleration of the target (the missile consumes more energy in the "coast" portion of flight chasing the target). Since the LACs have the highest acceleration around, they have the best chance to launch within their envelope and stay outside that of their target. I have done some rough calculations that suggest a "coast" lasting 5 minutes (at 1/10th full accel) should give the LACs enough time to evade action (assuming Haven capital ships are using variable-accel missiles as well).

   Some questions to consider: Will decoys more effective? However, they must last long enough to draw missiles away. Can missile launch be detected at these extreme ranges? Missile impellers are not at full strength after all. Could the LACs sneak up and launch without being detected? Much longer flight paths (assuming detection) would give point defenses more time for solution. Detection might require a screen of destroyers or LACs several million Km in front of and around battlesquadrons just to notice the missile launches and the LAC approach.

   I have realized (April 1997) that the variable acceleration can be used to expand time as well as space. A ship could fire a number of missile salvos at a very low acceleration (say 5Kips) with a preset initialization of full acceleration. With a bit of careful timing, all the salvos would strike at the target about the same time. This would serve as a substitute for missile pods. Any ship could use this for the start of the missile engagement. This is something that the Peoples Navy could dream up, since it is merely an extension of sequenced fire (which they use all the time). Perhaps Shannon Forakar will be the originator.

6. Who needs Special Grav Generators to Send Messages

   It would be rather noticeable, and perhaps hard on the impellers, but couldn't deliberate fluctuations of the wedge of a flagship be used to send messages in code?

7. Missile Pod Drone.

   This would be a powered drone (complete with small fusion bottle like the sensor drones with the grav generators) that would carry a cargo of missiles (i.e., this is a mobile missile pod). It should have much the same effect as variable acceleration for missiles to expand the space of missile engagements. Most of the comments above would apply IMHO. The wedges of a large number of them could also serve as a screen against incoming missile fire for anything hiding behind.

Possible Events before the next book

...Commodore Harrington barely squeaks through House of Lords confirmation; the usual suspects, possessing no shame, try to use the duel against Burdette as further evidence of Honor's "obvious instability" and "butcher's approach to political differences." ...Harrington works with BuShips on new ship designs (so Samantha would have Nimitz around), perhaps some intense interactions with the Hemphill fan club. ...Harrington introduces new ideas for use of LACs, perhaps the "Harrington Hammer" proves superior to the "Sonja Swarm."

The Assault on Trevor's Star (possible main action of next book )

...BatRon 1 GSN (with Admiral Harrington in command) is part of the wormhole assault. It consists 4 modified Dequesne SDs - "Terrible," "Furious," "Courageous", and "Magnificent," plus 4 Grayson built SDs - "Benjamin Mayhew II" (for Benjamin the Great), "Isaiah Mackenzie" (his general), "Julius Hanks," and (blush) "Honor Harrington" (not the squadron flagship!).
...2 divisions of new SDs with missile pod deployment system also in assault.
...Assault takes Trevor's Star, news of fall of Trevor's Star leaks out and hits Haven like a thunderbolt. The triumvirate falls to mob action; as word spreads, Peoples Commissioners (at least the offensive ones) "take a walk" out airlocks, sans suits.
...Esther McQueen's contingency plans at Trevor's Star (originally intended for activation upon conquest by White Haven's Sixth Fleet, but still applicable) interferes with resupply of RMN-GSN combined fleet at Trevor's. Cruisers are firing missiles (from outside the hyper limit) at the wormhole exit (sure they are on ballistic courses, but it isn't moving). A low rate of fire is being used to conserve missiles - but since one laser head could do all sorts of damage to a merchantman, a low rate is all that is needed. At least one SD squadron comes in anyway as reinforcements while a SD squadron equivalent exit for repairs.
...Sixth Fleet gets suckered punched (White Haven didn't realize that McQueen had more time to counter attack Trevor's Star and falls for a feigned withdrawal) - PN battleplan spreads the fire around to damage as many ships as possible, doesn't stay around to actually destroy ships, since McQueen needs these ships for Trevor's Star. Attack is enhanced by deployment of Haven-built missile pods (McQueen had been holding them back until she had enough for all battle squadrons, or a really important target), Dequesne class SDs can tow 9 such pods, each fire 8 missiles, but is otherwise equal in performance to Manticore missile pods. Sixth Fleet flagship badly hit, White Haven included in casualties.
...McQueen gathers a 6+ battlesquadron taskforce to attack Trevor's Star (Sixth fleet repairing battle damage and is temporarily inactive). Manticore-Grayson fleet somewhat scattered (chasing down cruisers firing missiles), unable to unite in time for battle and decides to withdraw from Trevor's Star via wormhole or out via hyper. One squadron equivalent (all new SDs, GSN and RMN including all 4 "mauler" SDs), commanded by Honor, harrasses McQueen to slow her down and gain time for the withdrawal. McQueen detaches a battlesquadron+ of DNs in an attempt to "trap" Honor's force - the "mauler" SDs lay down a salvo of 3000 missiles, smashing the dreadnoughts. McQueen abandons ideas of splitting her force. The continued harrassment slows down McQueen (who has to keep rotating her formation), allowing the rest of the Manticore-Grayson taskforce to withdraw. Honor does a relatively distant pass of McQueen's force, and escapes across the hyper limit and goes home the long way.
...McQueen goes to Haven in triumph (well, she did take back Trevor's Star after all and repelled Sixth Fleet) and seizes control of the government.

The Solarian League Peace Initiative (epilogue)

....Special Plenipotentiary from Solarian League arrives in Manticore (colleague on way to Haven as well). She issues the following position statement, "I am tired of your stupid war, end it" (well not really). Failure of assault on Trevor's Star, plus death of White Haven shakes the Centrists and Crown Loyalists coalition. The Opposition is in favor of truce (of course). Truce breaks down just in time for the 8th Honor Harrington novel.

Comments

Harrington's political problems will interfere with the out of zone promotions (which must be approved by the House of Lords) necessary for her to command major Manticore formations (Vice Admiral of the Red is 3 such promotions above Commodore). The only way that I see that these out of zone promotions would pass review is that the opposition has much more serious problems, like losing everything (e.g., the threat of Haven attacking from Trevor's Star being present). In addition, Manticore would need a shortage of compentent fighting admirals. Since it doesn't have this shortage so far in the series, one has to be created. Thus, bye-bye White Haven (we knew you well), also, Mark Sarnow (he might last long enough to get promoted up to Vice Admiral or even Admiral). When do I think that Trevor's Star will finally fall permanently? When the entire Haven empire collapses. The wormhole link is the equivalent of the English Channel. England nibbled Napoleon's empire to death around the periphery of Europe and I expect that Weber will have Manticore do the same to Haven. May 1997 note: the prologue to In Enemy Hands invalidates this, unless Haven recaptures Trevor's Star. May 2000 note: Ashes of Victory blew away the promotion problems as well.

The idea of the Solarian League peace initiative came about when I realized that the equivalent of the Treaty of Armiens was almost due. I know that Weber is not copying the French Revolution-Napoleonic wars "plotline" exactly, only using general ideas; but it certainly looks like a good closure for an ultimately unsuccessful major assault. While I don't expect that Weber's actual plot line for Honor #7 to have very much in common with what I wrote above, I actually do expect that there will be an equivalent to the Treaty of Armiens (it could appear in Honor #11 or #12). May 1997 note: And the real Honor #7 totally avoided my line of thought. White Haven finally succeeds in capturing Trevor's Star and is reassigned to a new position. I suspect that Honor #7 will be dedicated to reducing the massive DeQuesne naval base at Burnett. May 2000 note: And the reduction got delayed, and delayed, but finaalllyyyy.....