Oct 29, 2000 note: This was posted in late January 2000 after reading the 2nd installment of the Webscription of Ashes of Victory. Nov 25, 2005 Note: I added a comment to the last paragraph.

I have gone through the first 36 chapters of Ashes of Victory (via the Webscription) and I have been taking note:

Of who has been naughty

Of who has been nice

Of who is wearing red Oct 29, 2000 note: A reference to "red shirts" - those who appear on stage just to be killed.

Of who might be visiting a tailor Oct 29, 2000 note: An allusion to long standing characters who might be donning red in subsequent chapters.

On to some spoilers

A number of people have been naughty, but I want to single out Admiral of the Green Sir Thomas Caparelli, First Space Lord of the RMN. He should be ashamed of the way he led all those Peeps by the nose down the garden path. Anyone who has beaten him in a "friendly" game of tennis or golf should be warned. If he wants a rematch, and suggest a "friendly" wager to "make things more interesting," don't accept. He is out to take all your money.

Honor has been nice. Not only did she feed all those cadets, she did some payforwarding in the patronage system as well.

A number of people, first introduced in this book, have already died by chapter 36. Still among the living, of those newly introduced, are the chief bodyguards of such people of Benjamin Mayhew, Allan Summervale, and Elizabeth Winton. Since the word "assassination" appears in the blurb, I am not confident about their continued survival. Oct 29, 2000 note: And not all survived.

And of course, the Protector of Grayson, the Prime Minister of SKM, and the Queen of Manticore all employ tailors (but I don't expect all three to be killed). Oct 29, 2000 note: Right

And now for SERIOUS spoilers

Military:

White Haven should be able to capture all the bases close to Barnett and basically blow out the entire "southwest" frontier of the People's Republic. He might sweep far enough to the "east" to threaten the bases used by Guiscard's Twelfth Fleet for its drive toward Grendelsbane. Not that will mean that much, because I don't expect Twelfth Fleet to survive as combat formation after its attack there. Oct 29, 2000 note: White Haven didn't sweep as far "east" as the above assumed, but drove directly toward Haven.

What happens there is really a function on how many SD(P)s are present with the new staged capital missiles. Caparelli wanted to send a squadron or two to that theater. How many of those will be at Grendelsbane is not clear to me. I am guessing ten. That, assuming there are enough ships to control all the pods, would allow a 50000 missile launch; sufficient to shatter a formation of 15 squadrons of the wall, several squadrons of battleships, and screening elements (and 12th fleet might not be that big or might not have that much concentrated), especially since the new ECM generation has restored the Alliance superiority. Of course, there will still be a goodly number of ships surviving that, even some combat ready. But, even if they could reform some sort of combat formation on the fly, I am certain they would be inferior in numbers to the Alliance fleet assigned to Grendelsbane.

Shannon Foraker could cause my guess to be incorrect; she knows enough (because of the "Wayfarer") to imagine the existence of SD(P)s. It is entirely possible that she will look closely enough at the sensor recordings from Elric to realize that half of the Alliance SDs there were really drones. Postulating the presence of SD(P)s would be one way to reconcile the number of missiles launched with the real number of SDs. So, there is a chance that Guiscard and Tourville will come up with an attack plan against Grendelsbane that would allow Twelfth to escape badly wounded rather than a small gaggle of badly damaged ships.

Even so, I suspect that once Battle of Grendelsbane is over, the Alliance navies will have numerical superiority over the Peoples' Navy. Oct 29, 2000 note: However, my speculations over this is moot, since Guiscard's Twelfth Fleet was recalled back to the interior of the Republic of Haven before it actually launched the attack on Grendelsbane system.

Covert:

St. Just's hopes for Operation Hassan will come through (hiss!!), though I hope not completely. The Manticore side looks to be a blow in the air (and we haven't seen any of it either) because the Queen Elizabeth III and her Prime Minister will be visiting Grayson, unless Admiral Caprelli is made the backup target. However, that gives the Grayson (Masada actually) side a chance at all of the prime political targets. However, I am hoping that Cromarty will be the only direct high-ranking casualty. Remember, David Weber has been quoting of saying that Cromarty will be killed at some point. One question I have is whether the Masadans will manage to take Steadholder Mueller down with them. Oct 29, 2000 note: Cromarty wasn't quite the only high level casualty, but I hadn't identified the others in my speculation above.

It is possible, that "Slippery Sam" will suspect them of something and get HIS armsmen in position to block their assassination attempt on the Protector. In which case, the Duke of Cromarty and his cantankerous chief bodyguard could be in the way of their attempted escape ("Oops" perhaps?). And if "Slippery" manages to cover himself with enough glory to hide the stain from dirty money ... grrrr! Oct 29, 2000 note: All of this was assuming an attack on the ground, very 20th Century of me, I suspect. BTW, "Oops" was stated by Mike Weber, David's older brother, to be his favorite line. And "Slippery Sam" was a name I gave to Mueller, a nickname that I now believe that he did not live up to.

Political:

As for the political effect of all this, peace must break out (I can't think of anything else that would keep White Haven and the 8th Combined fleet from "visiting" Haven itself for an extended tour within a T-year.). I am expecting that a Liberal-Conservative coalition will organize a majority in the House of the Lords, establish a new government, and force a peace proposal down the throats of the Commons and the house of Winton. I further suspect that the coalition will have trouble agreeing on anything else (this is something of an alliance with the devil for both sides). Oct 29, 2000 note: Not quite what happened, but close enough. Mar 1, 2003 Note: However their alliance lasted far longer than I would have thought.

There has been some speculation that Theisman will seize control Haven. I don't know if he will do it immediately. I will admit that if St. Just moves against Guiscard and Tourville all bets are OFF. If Theisman becomes El Presidente during the peace, this could cause long term problems for the series, because there isn't a good reason for him to restart the war. If he is forced to because of internal Haven politics, that means he is going to be dragged down into the mud just as Pierre was. Which makes me fear that he won't be Theisman anymore; just an appetite wearing the same face (is it possible that this series is not the "Heroics of Honor Harrington" but is, in actuality, the "Tragedy of Thomas Theisman?"). Oct 29, 2000 note: and St. Just did move against G&T. I must await Honor #10 or even #11 before any questions over the restart of the war can be addressed. Mar 1, 2003 Note: Well, internal Haven intrigue did result in Theisman directing the war restart, but on someone else's command, so he is avoiding a mudbath, so far. Nov 25, 2005 Note: However, At All Costs reveals somebody who WANTS to drag Theisman, Pritchard, Honor, and just about every other viewpoint character in 3 star nations to the mud baths.